Radiative Models of Sagittarius A* and M87 from Relativistic MHD Simulations

Ongoing millimeter VLBI observations with the Event Horizon Telescope allow unprecedented study of the innermost portion of black hole accretion flows. Interpreting the observations requires relativistic, time-dependent physical modeling. We discuss the comparison of radiative transfer calculations from general relativistic MHD simulations of Sagittarius A* and M87 with current and future mm-VLBI observations. This comparison allows estimates of the viewing geometry and physical conditions of the Sgr A* accretion flow. The viewing geometry for M87 is already constrained from observations of its large-scale jet, but, unlike Sgr A*, there is no consensus for its millimeter emission geometry or electron population. Despite this uncertainty, as long as the emission region is compact, robust predictions for the size of its jet launching region can be made. For both sources, the black hole shadow may be detected with future observations including ALMA and/or the LMT, which would constitute the first direct evidence for a black hole event horizon.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, submitted to the proceedings of AHAR 2011: The Central Kiloparse

The observed state of the water cycle in the early twenty-first century

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 28 (2015): 8289–8318, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00555.1.This study quantifies mean annual and monthly fluxes of Earth’s water cycle over continents and ocean basins during the first decade of the millennium. To the extent possible, the flux estimates are based on satellite measurements first and data-integrating models second. A careful accounting of uncertainty in the estimates is included. It is applied within a routine that enforces multiple water and energy budget constraints simultaneously in a variational framework in order to produce objectively determined optimized flux estimates. In the majority of cases, the observed annual surface and atmospheric water budgets over the continents and oceans close with much less than 10% residual. Observed residuals and optimized uncertainty estimates are considerably larger for monthly surface and atmospheric water budget closure, often nearing or exceeding 20% in North America, Eurasia, Australia and neighboring islands, and the Arctic and South Atlantic Oceans. The residuals in South America and Africa tend to be smaller, possibly because cold land processes are negligible. Fluxes were poorly observed over the Arctic Ocean, certain seas, Antarctica, and the Australasian and Indonesian islands, leading to reliance on atmospheric analysis estimates. Many of the satellite systems that contributed data have been or will soon be lost or replaced. Models that integrate ground-based and remote observations will be critical for ameliorating gaps and discontinuities in the data records caused by these transitions. Continued development of such models is essential for maximizing the value of the observations. Next-generation observing systems are the best hope for significantly improving global water budget accounting.This research was funded by multiple grants from NASA’s Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) program.2016-05-0

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

Perceived stressors of climate vulnerability across scales in the Savannah zone of Ghana: a participatory approach

Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa are confronted with climatic and non-climatic stressors. Research attention has focused on climatic stressors, such as rainfall variability, with few empirical studies exploring non-climatic stressors and how these interact with climatic stressors at multiple scales to affect food security and livelihoods. This focus on climatic factors restricts understanding of the combinations of stressors that exacerbate the vulnerability of farming households and hampers the development of holistic climate change adaptation policies. This study addresses this particular research gap by adopting a multi-scale approach to understand how climatic and non-climatic stressors vary, and interact, across three spatial scales (household, community and district levels) to influence livelihood vulnerability of smallholder farming households in the Savannah zone of northern Ghana. This study across three case study villages utilises a series of participatory tools including semi-structured interviews, key informant interviews and focus group discussions. The incidence, importance, severity and overall risk indices for stressors are calculated at the household, community, and district levels. Results show that climatic and non-climatic stressors were perceived differently; yet, there were a number of common stressors including lack of money, high cost of farm inputs, erratic rainfall, cattle destruction of crops, limited access to markets and lack of agricultural equipment that crossed all scales. Results indicate that the gender of respondents influenced the perception and severity assessment of stressors on rural livelihoods at the community level. Findings suggest a mismatch between local and district level priorities that have implications for policy and development of agricultural and related livelihoods in rural communities. Ghana’s climate change adaptation policies need to take a more holistic approach that integrates both climatic and non-climatic factors to ensure policy coherence between national climate adaptation plans and District development plans

Carpal tunnel syndrome and the "double crush" hypothesis: a review and implications for chiropractic

Upton and McComas claimed that most patients with carpal tunnel syndrome not only have compressive lesions at the wrist, but also show evidence of damage to cervical nerve roots. This "double crush" hypothesis has gained some popularity among chiropractors because it seems to provide a rationale for adjusting the cervical spine in treating carpal tunnel syndrome. Here I examine use of the concept by chiropractors, summarize findings from the literature, and critique several studies aimed at supporting or refuting the hypothesis. Although the hypothesis also has been applied to nerve compressions other than those leading to carpal tunnel syndrome, this discussion mainly examines the original application – "double crush" involving both cervical spinal nerve roots and the carpal tunnel. I consider several categories: experiments to create double crush syndrome in animals, case reports, literature reviews, and alternatives to the original hypothesis. A significant percentage of patients with carpal tunnel syndrome also have neck pain or cervical nerve root compression, but the relationship has not been definitively explained. The original hypothesis remains controversial and is probably not valid, at least for sensory disturbances, in carpal tunnel syndrome. However, even if the original hypothesis is importantly flawed, evaluation of multiple sites still may be valuable. The chiropractic profession should develop theoretical models to relate cervical dysfunction to carpal tunnel syndrome, and might incorporate some alternatives to the original hypothesis. I intend this review as a starting point for practitioners, educators, and students wishing to advance chiropractic concepts in this area

Expansion in CD39(+) CD4(+) Immunoregulatory T Cells and Rarity of Th17 Cells in HTLV-1 Infected Patients Is Associated with Neurological Complications

HTLV-1 infection is associated with several inflammatory disorders, including the neurodegenerative condition HTLV-1-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis (HAM/TSP). It is unclear why a minority of infected subjects develops HAM/TSP. CD4(+) T cells are the main target of infection and play a pivotal role in regulating immunity to HTLV and are hypothesized to participate in the pathogenesis of HAM/TSP. the CD39 ectonucleotidase receptor is expressed on CD4(+) T cells and based on co-expression with CD25, marks T cells with distinct regulatory (CD39(+)CD25(+)) and effector (CD39(+)CD25(-)) function. Here, we investigated the expression of CD39 on CD4(+) T cells from a cohort of HAM/TSP patients, HTLV-1 asymptomatic carriers (AC), and matched uninfected controls. the frequency of CD39(+)CD4(+) T cells was increased in HTLV-1 infected patients, regardless of clinical status. More importantly, the proportion of the immunostimulatory CD39(+)CD25(-) CD4+ T-cell subset was significantly elevated in HAM/TSP patients as compared to AC and phenotypically had lower levels of the immunoinhibitory receptor, PD-1. We saw no difference in the frequency of CD39(+)CD25(+) regulatory (Treg) cells between AC and HAM/TSP patients. However, these cells transition from being anergic to displaying a polyfunctional cytokine response following HTLV-1 infection. CD39(-)CD25(+) T cell subsets predominantly secreted the inflammatory cytokine IL-17. We found that HAM/TSP patients had significantly fewer numbers of IL-17 secreting CD4(+) T cells compared to uninfected controls. Taken together, we show that the expression of CD39 is upregulated on CD4(+) T cells HAM/TSP patients. This upregulation may play a role in the development of the proinflammatory milieu through pathways both distinct and separate among the different CD39 T cell subsets. CD39 upregulation may therefore serve as a surrogate diagnostic marker of progression and could potentially be a target for interventions to reduce the development of HAM/TSP.National Institute of Allergies and Infectious DiseasesNational Institutes of HealthUniversity of CaliforniaSan Francisco-Gladstone Institute of Virology & Immunology Center for AIDS ResearchFundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)John E. Fogarty International CenterNational Center for Research ResourcesNational Institute of General Medical Sciences from the National Institutes of HealthUniv Calif San Francisco, Dept Med, Div Expt Med, San Francisco, CA 94143 USAUniv Hawaii, John A Burns Sch Med, Dept Trop Med, Hawaii Ctr AIDS, Honolulu, HI 96822 USAUniv São Paulo, Sch Med, Deparment Infect Dis, São Paulo, BrazilUniv São Paulo, Sch Med, Div Clin Immunol & Allergy, São Paulo, BrazilFuncacao Prosangue, Hemoctr São Paulo, Mol Biol Lab, São Paulo, BrazilUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Dept Translat Med, São Paulo, BrazilUniversidade Federal de São Paulo, Dept Translat Med, São Paulo, BrazilSan Francisco-Gladstone Institute of Virology & Immunology Center for AIDS Research: P30 AI027763FAPESP: 04/15856-9/KallasFAPESP: 2010/05845-0/KallasFAPESP: 11/12297-2/SanabaniJohn E. Fogarty International Center: D43 TW00003National Center for Research Resources: 5P20RR016467-11National Institute of General Medical Sciences from the National Institutes of Health: 8P20GM103466-11Web of Scienc

HLA Class I Binding of HBZ Determines Outcome in HTLV-1 Infection

CD8(+) T cells can exert both protective and harmful effects on the virus-infected host. However, there is no systematic method to identify the attributes of a protective CD8(+) T cell response. Here, we combine theory and experiment to identify and quantify the contribution of all HLA class I alleles to host protection against infection with a given pathogen. In 432 HTLV-1-infected individuals we show that individuals with HLA class I alleles that strongly bind the HTLV-1 protein HBZ had a lower proviral load and were more likely to be asymptomatic. We also show that in general, across all HTLV-1 proteins, CD8(+) T cell effectiveness is strongly determined by protein specificity and produce a ranked list of the proteins targeted by the most effective CD8(+) T cell response through to the least effective CD8(+) T cell response. We conclude that CD8(+) T cells play an important role in the control of HTLV-1 and that CD8(+) cells specific to HBZ, not the immunodominant protein Tax, are the most effective. We suggest that HBZ plays a central role in HTLV-1 persistence. This approach is applicable to all pathogens, even where data are sparse, to identify simultaneously the HLA Class I alleles and the epitopes responsible for a protective CD8(+) T cell response

State of the climate in 2013

In 2013, the vast majority of the monitored climate variables reported here maintained trends established in recent decades. ENSO was in a neutral state during the entire year, remaining mostly on the cool side of neutral with modest impacts on regional weather patterns around the world. This follows several years dominated by the effects of either La Niña or El Niño events. According to several independent analyses, 2013 was again among the 10 warmest years on record at the global scale, both at the Earths surface and through the troposphere. Some regions in the Southern Hemisphere had record or near-record high temperatures for the year. Australia observed its hottest year on record, while Argentina and New Zealand reported their second and third hottest years, respectively. In Antarctica, Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station reported its highest annual temperature since records began in 1957. At the opposite pole, the Arctic observed its seventh warmest year since records began in the early 20th century. At 20-m depth, record high temperatures were measured at some permafrost stations on the North Slope of Alaska and in the Brooks Range. In the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, anomalous meridional atmospheric circulation occurred throughout much of the year, leading to marked regional extremes of both temperature and precipitation. Cold temperature anomalies during winter across Eurasia were followed by warm spring temperature anomalies, which were linked to a new record low Eurasian snow cover extent in May. Minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic was the sixth lowest since satellite observations began in 1979. Including 2013, all seven lowest extents on record have occurred in the past seven years. Antarctica, on the other hand, had above-average sea ice extent throughout 2013, with 116 days of new daily high extent records, including a new daily maximum sea ice area of 19.57 million km2 reached on 1 October. ENSO-neutral conditions in the eastern central Pacific Ocean and a negative Pacific decadal oscillation pattern in the North Pacific had the largest impacts on the global sea surface temperature in 2013. The North Pacific reached a historic high temperature in 2013 and on balance the globally-averaged sea surface temperature was among the 10 highest on record. Overall, the salt content in nearsurface ocean waters increased while in intermediate waters it decreased. Global mean sea level continued to rise during 2013, on pace with a trend of 3.2 mm yr-1 over the past two decades. A portion of this trend (0.5 mm yr-1) has been attributed to natural variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation as well as to ongoing contributions from the melting of glaciers and ice sheets and ocean warming. Global tropical cyclone frequency during 2013 was slightly above average with a total of 94 storms, although the North Atlantic Basin had its quietest hurricane season since 1994. In the Western North Pacific Basin, Super Typhoon Haiyan, the deadliest tropical cyclone of 2013, had 1-minute sustained winds estimated to be 170 kt (87.5 m s-1) on 7 November, the highest wind speed ever assigned to a tropical cyclone. High storm surge was also associated with Haiyan as it made landfall over the central Philippines, an area where sea level is currently at historic highs, increasing by 200 mm since 1970. In the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide all continued to increase in 2013. As in previous years, each of these major greenhouse gases once again reached historic high concentrations. In the Arctic, carbon dioxide and methane increased at the same rate as the global increase. These increases are likely due to export from lower latitudes rather than a consequence of increases in Arctic sources, such as thawing permafrost. At Mauna Loa, Hawaii, for the first time since measurements began in 1958, the daily average mixing ratio of carbon dioxide exceeded 400 ppm on 9 May. The state of these variables, along with dozens of others, and the 2013 climate conditions of regions around the world are discussed in further detail in this 24th edition of the State of the Climate series. © 2014, American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved